FXUS66 KMTR 011128 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 328 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 108 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025 - Light burst of offshore winds tonight in the North Bay, more substantial offshore winds Wednesday morning across Bay Area. - Quiet again after Wednesday into the weekend. - Hazardous beach conditions through Wednesday. - King Tides arrive December 2 - 7. - Watching the next potential pattern change towards the middle of the month. Some signs point towards more active weather for our region. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 108 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025 (Today and tonight) The forecaster's lament this morning... Many times in the summer this past season, we were humbled by fog and stratus. It seems to be the case again these past few days as the Tule fog and stratus have impacted a decent portion of our Bay Area forecast counties. In particular, the North Bay, but that doesn't mean the rest of the Bay Area hasn't been tricky. The forecast challenge for today will be the timing and the status of the stratus and its effect on high temperatures. Yesterday, many models were pointing to a few hours of afternoon clearing for the North Bay; however, that ended up being quite limited and late in the afternoon if any places saw sun. This kept high temperatures lower than expected, even with the changes. Given there isn't much sign for a huge pattern change, opted to go with an even more pessimistic forecast than yesterday. Which means, little no to clearing again for the North and East Bay and that should keep temperatures similar to yesterday, perhaps a hair warmer if one holds out hope for a peak of sun earlier in the afternoon. Any clearing that does happen, it should be filled back in by the evening, leading to another cloudy night. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 108 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025 (Tuesday through Sunday) You guessed, it not much change in the extended forecast. An inside slider is set to dig into the Great Basin midweek, leading to gusty offshore winds for the North Bay, East Bay, and Santa Cruz mountains. Look for northeast winds to gust to about 25-35 mph with locally higher gusts up to 45 mph for higher ridge tops and favored gaps and passes. Winds gradually increase late Tuesday night, peak Wednesday morning, and wind down during the afternoon and evening hours. After that fairly quiet weather remains on tap as upper level ridging noses into the region. Ensembles hold weak ridging through the weekend with more zonal flow returning after that. The Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day outlook has us leaning above normal for temperatures, with near normal or just below normal chances for precipitation. Given the pattern, this leads to some uncertainty in the forecast so stay tuned in to see how the forecast evolves. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 328 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025 Offshore winds prevail this morning supported by surface pressure gradients 7.8 mb WMC-SFO and 1 mb SAC-SFO. Stratus and fog /MVFR- IFR-LIFR/ continue to advect into the Bay Area from the Central Valley. North to northeast winds are gusty at higher elevations in the East Bay and the North Bay. A greater depth from the surface to lower level temperature inversion and gusty winds at and above the temperature inversion may be helping to limit to greatly limit areal coverage of fog /LIFR-VLIFR/ so far overnight. The Central Valley stratus and fog coverage is still well established and there's plenty of cooling potential still through daybreak. Cirrus clouds continue to mostly obscure the surface stratus and fog patterns. Low confidence on stratus and fog redevelopment tonight and Tuesday morning. Vicinity of SFO...MVFR-IFR 12z-16z then MVFR until 22z today. Northeast to east wind 5 to 8 knots today, becoming light and variable tonight. SFO Bridge Approach...Slant range visibility moderate to poor at sunrise and sunset. Otherwise similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR-MVFR early this morning, with cold air drainage winds otherwise increasing and resulting in greater mixing through morning resulting in VFR. VFR today and tonight, low confidence VFR continues Tuesday morning. Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots through morning, becoming light onshore late this afternoon to light southeasterly winds tonight. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 306 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025 Moderate to fresh northerly breezes and moderate to rough seas will prevail today through Tuesday morning. Hazardous marine conditions return Tuesday afternoon as northerly breezes increase to become fresh to strong and seas become rough to very rough. Conditions improve Thursday with moderate northerly breezes and moderate seas. && .BEACHES... Issued at 108 AM PST Mon Dec 1 2025 Hazardous beach conditions will continue into Wednesday evening with a very energetic surf zone. A beach hazards statement remains in effect for the coastline from Sonoma County to Monterey County through 10 PM PST Tuesday evening. Breaking waves 10 to 14 feet, with long lulls of 10 to 20 minutes or more between largest sets can be expected. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. Never turn your back to the ocean. RGass/KR && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 3 PM PST Sunday for CAZ006-506-508-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea