FXUS66 KMTR 061133
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
333 AM PST Tue Jan 6 2026

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1207 AM PST Tue Jan 6 2026

 - Light to moderate rainfall will continue through mid-morning
   with isolated rain showers possible through the evening

 - Cold overnight conditions return Thursday night

 - Hazardous beach conditions for all Pacific Coast beaches
   Thursday and Friday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1207 AM PST Tue Jan 6 2026
(Today and tonight)

Light to moderate rainfall will continue through mid-morning with 
isolated rain showers possible through the evening as the 
responsible cutoff low slowly slinks south. Extra caution should be 
used when driving as residual impacts such as wet roadways, ponding 
of water, and flooding of low-lying, poor drainage, and urban areas 
as well as flashy creeks/streams will likely persist. The main 
problem area is in the North Bay in Sonoma County, especially for 
areas near and downstream of Mark West Creek near Mirabel Heights. 
If you encounter flooded roadways, remember: turn around, don't 
drown! 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1207 AM PST Tue Jan 6 2026
(Wednesday through Monday)

The slow exit of the cutoff low will keep the region in a troughy 
pattern through Wednesday. This will keep the storm door open and 
allow for a cold front to skirt the region then. Fortunately from a 
hydrologic standpoint, this will bring little if any accumulation 
with gloomy conditions and drizzle a more likely result. Global 
ensemble clusters are in agreement that heights will begin to rise 
by Thursday as a longwave ridge moves in from the Eastern Pacific 
Ocean, resulting in what I like to call a high and dry pattern. Calm 
and clear conditions will yield cold overnight conditions with most 
of the interior within Cold Weather Advisory criteria Thursday night 
into Friday morning. Offshore flow from high pressure in the Great 
Basin and a coastal trough off the West Coast will help raise the 
minimum temperatures thanks to downslope flow and compressional 
warming. It will still be cold during the overnight periods of the 
weekend, but it won't be as cold or encompassing as Thursday night 
into Friday morning is expected to be.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 322 AM PST Tue Jan 6 2026

Showers are stubbornly persisting this morning, although rain
rates are light enough to not bring the visibility below VFR
thresholds. The shower activity will continue to diminish through
the morning, especially for the northern terminals as the low
pressure system slides towards the Channel Islands where it will
linger through the 2nd half of the TAF period. SCT-BKN VFR clouds
will persist for the next couple days before skies clear on
Thursday. Winds will be mostly gentle and diurnally driven as the
southerly gradient weakens.

Vicinity of SFO...Isolated showers continue this morning, but on a
decreasing trend. Winds will remain light all day, and finally
flip back to NW with a weak sea breeze this afternoon. VFR clouds
will persist through the day with a few sun breaks.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Rain showers will linger here through the
majority of the morning before clearing up this afternoon. The VFR
ceilings will very likely stick around after the rain ends. Winds
at MRY will be gentle all day, making the direction tricky. The 
typical weakly forced regime of onshore winds in the afternoon and
offshore winds overnight is expected, but the exact timing of the
wind shifts is hard to pin down.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 322 AM PST Tue Jan 6 2026

Conditions are improving this morning as a low pressure system
slides south. Northerly winds return Wednesday morning and
increase to a strong breeze by the afternoon. These winds coincide
with a very high NW swell, building very rough significant wave
heights by Thursday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 10 PM PST Friday for 
     CAZ006-505-509-530.

     Beach Hazards Statement from late Wednesday night through Friday 
     evening for CAZ529.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PST Thursday 
     for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt 
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sarment
LONG TERM....Sarment
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...Flynn

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