FXUS66 KMTR 281913 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1213 PM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1212 PM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026 - Above normal temperatures over the weekend - Cooler conditions return Monday with beneficial, light rain Tuesday through Thursday && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1212 PM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026 (This evening through Sunday) The 12Z sounding observed an 850 millibar temperature of 14.15 degrees Celsius which is above the 90th percentile (13.5 degrees Celsius) for the date and time. This warm air mass will result in above normal temperatures that will contend with daily high temperature records this weekend. Stratus that was advected via a southerly surge is beginning to pull back to the coast where it is expected to stay throughout the day. The shallow marine layer of 500 feet will likely undergo further compression as southerly flow veers to become northerly, promoting dry northerly flow. Stratus and patchy fog is expected to return to coastal locations tonight. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1212 PM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026 (Sunday night through next Friday) A passing upper-level shortwave trough and its associated dying cold front will encroach from the northwest Monday. This will crack the storm door open. Unfortunately, we will be far removed from the parent system in the Northern Great Plains; thus, only cooler conditions and wind are expected in the absence of rainfall. A gale force low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska will head towards the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday. As it does so, it will pull in tropical moisture from the Northwestern Pacific Ocean that will overtop strong high pressure centered in the Northern Pacific Ocean. The strength of the aforementioned low will allow it to cut through the aforementioned high, renewing our chances for rainfall. The associated cold front will pass Wednesday into Thursday, bringing beneficial, light rainfall to the North Bay and locations along the bayshore and Pacific Coast. Interior higher terrain may get measurable rainfall with the help of orographic lift, otherwise the interior will remain dry. To put the month of March's precipitation into context we'll use San Francisco Downtown as an example. It has not rained there since March 2nd. If it rains on Tuesday, it'll tie 1923 for the longest dry stretch in March. 1923 is the driest March on record with 0.03", 2026 is the second driest on record so far with 0.06". Surface high pressure will nose in from the Eastern Pacific Ocean on Friday, rebounding temperatures near to slightly above normal. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1023 AM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026 A shallow marine layer around 500 feet in depth resulted in stratus along the coast with KHAF reporting LIFR conditions since about 12Z. This also resulted in brief LIFR/IFR conditions around KSNS and KMRY around the same time. Expecting VFR conditions primarily throughout the day with an increase in onshore winds by this afternoon. Winds ease late this evening and into Sunday morning with a moderate confidence for sub-VFR conditions late this evening and early Sunday morning around the aforementioned TAF sites. Elsewhere, moderate to high confidence for VFR conditions to persist through the TAF period. The one exception is KSTS where there is a low probability for LIFR/IFR to return early Sunday morning. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Breezy onshore winds increase this afternoon before easing late this evening/overnight. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR throughout much of the day with an increase of onshore winds by this afternoon. Moderate confidence for LIFR/IFR ceilings to return late this evening at KMRY and early Sunday morning at KSNS. However, lower confidence in how long they will persist as the marine layer is forecast to compress into Sunday morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 439 AM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026 Moderate to fresh northerly winds continue with localized strong gusts and moderate seas across the northern outer water. Light rain is possible early to midweek as upper level troughing returns with winds becoming more westerly to southerly. Strong to near gale force gusts are expected late Thursday into the weekend. Seas build late Thursday into Friday with significant wave heights between 10 to 12 feet expected across the outer waters. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 717 AM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026 Here are the record high temperatures at the long term sites for March 28th and March 29th. Location March 28th March 29th Santa Rosa 85 in 1923 86 in 2018 San Rafael 81 in 2018 85 in 2018 Kentfield 91 in 1923 84 in 1935 Napa 83 in 2015 83 in 2018, 1968 Richmond 81 in 1969 79 in 1968 Livermore 82 in 2015 85 in 2015 San Francisco 81 in 1986 81 in 2018 SFO Airport 77 in 2018 81 in 2018 Redwood City 81 in 2018 85 in 2018, 1968 Half Moon Bay 79 in 1968 77 in 2004 Oakland 79 in 2015 79 in 2003 San Jose 84 in 1923 82 in 2018 Salinas Airport 84 in 2004 86 in 2018 && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sarment LONG TERM....Sarment AVIATION...RGass MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea