FXUS66 KMTR 130642
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1142 PM PDT Sun Apr 12 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1136 PM PDT Sun Apr 12 2026

 - Slightly cooler to near normal temperatures through Thursday

 - Periods of gusty winds, especially at higher elevations 
   Wednesday through Friday

 - Warmer temperatures return Friday into the weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1136 PM PDT Sun Apr 12 2026
(Tonight through Tuesday)

The coverage in light shower activity continues to gradually shift 
south late tonight into early Monday morning. Earlier this evening 
the KOAK sounding reported a 23.0C temperature at H50 which is in 
the 10th percentile for this time of the year. That cold core aloft 
helped support continued light shower activity after sunset from the 
SF peninsula south to Monterey Bay. The upper low will become more 
unorganized as it moves farther inland, evolving into a positively 
tilted upper trough extending from the Great Basin southwest into 
SoCal today. Lingering offshore scattered light showers will 
occasionally drift into the Big Sur coastline through mid-morning 
today with maybe a trace to a few hundredths of rain. Mondays highs 
at lower elevations will run around 5F-10F degrees below normal, 
with higher elevations 10F-20F degrees below normal. Cooler than 
normal temperatures persist tonight into early Tuesday, especially 
farther inland with cooler than normal air aloft persisting much of 
the work week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1136 PM PDT Sun Apr 12 2026
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)

A progressive shortwave pattern sets in Tuesday through Thursday 
behind the exiting trough defining the term 'gradual warming' with 
most locations seeing an increase of 1 or 2 degrees each day through 
the middle of the week. A developing trough shifts south from the 
Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. There is a slight chance for 
rainfall across the North Bay Wednesday afternoon as the trough axis 
pivots east and south, but any rainfall will be measured in 
hundredths of inches with no impacts. Gusty winds will develop on the 
backside of the exiting trough later Wednesday through Thursday 
and into the early morning hours of Friday. However, updated 
deterministic guidance has shifted the disturbance farther east 
than this time last night with less of an 'inside slider' signal. 
Winds will still be gusty at times especially at higher elevations
but impacts seem low. There is also a signal for the potential of
another round of rainfall toward the end of next weekend into the
beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 959 PM PDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Isolated showers persist across the region through Monday morning 
with MVFR-VFR conditions possible within the showers. Otherwise, 
generally VFR through Monday afternoon. Light to gentle winds 
continue overnight with moderate onshore flow will developing in the 
afternoon. There is a low confidence (around 10-20% probability) of 
fog developing in the interior valleys tonight due to the recent 
rainfall. Confidence is too low to put this in the TAFs at this 
time. Monitoring the potential for MVFR-IFR stratus to develop 
Monday evening, potentially impacting immediate coastal and interior 
valley terminals.

Vicinity of SFO... Periodic shower activity continues through Monday 
morning, with generally VFR conditions expect when showers pass over 
the terminal. Light winds persist overnight before northwesterly 
flow develops Monday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... Isolated showers across the region through 
Monday morning, otherwise VFR through Monday afternoon. Light 
drainage flow continues overnight before moderate northwest winds 
develop for Monday afternoon. Monitoring the potential for IFR-MVFR 
stratus to develop along the northern edge of the Santa Lucia and 
Gabilan ranges on Monday evening, with potential side impacts to the 
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Saturday)
Issued at 959 PM PDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Isolated showers persist into early Monday morning. Gentle
northwest winds are expected to prevail tonight through Monday
morning, increasing to a moderate to fresh breeze through
Wednesday and a strong breeze to near gale force by Thursday.
Moderate seas continue through Wednesday before rough seas arrive
on Thursday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

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