FXUS66 KMTR 080250 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 650 PM PST Wed Jan 7 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1206 PM PST Wed Jan 7 2026 - Slight chance of very light showers overnight tonight; cold nights ahead through this weekend - Coldest temps expected Friday and Saturday mornings with widespread lows in the 30s - High confidence in dry weather prevailing after tomorrow && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1206 PM PST Wed Jan 7 2026 (This evening through Thursday) A weak cold front currently draped across the Northern California coast will gradually work its way down south through tonight. This will bring a slight chance of rain across the region overnight tonight. However, amounts aren't anticipated to be anything notable. A few hundredths of an inch here and there, if that. Most of us will likely not even know it rained overnight if it weren't for the damp surfaces in the morning, but we're already used to that, right? This also brings in some colder air aloft, but actually isn't the primary driver of our cold temps for the next few days. More on that in the LONG TERM. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1206 PM PST Wed Jan 7 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Bundle up, Bay Area! Cold nights are on the horizon late week through this weekend. The aforementioned weather system is actually associated with what will become like an inside slider setup, promoting a weak offshore wind. This will help dry our airmass out which results in clear skies and ultimately cooler temperatures overnight. With it being the dead of winter, nights are long. So any locations that end up with clear skies overnight (most) will have plenty of time to radiate out heat from the sunlight hours. The coldest period looks to be Friday AM/Saturday AM, where morning lows are forecast in the 30s across most of the region, and lower 40s along the immediate coast. We usually like to use probabilistic information, but in this case there may be some forecasts that are unrepresentative on the low end. That is to say, we think that the low extremes are over-represented among forecast model ensembles. However, this tends to be a rather sensitive forecast due to the possibility of stronger offshore wind or more cloud cover than initial anticipated. Because of this, it is important to note that while we think the low extreme forecasts are over-represented, that is not to say that they aren't possible. It's just a smaller likelihood. The MOST LIKELY scenario puts much of the South Bay, North Bay valleys, and Pajaro Valley near the freezing mark (32-34F) Friday morning. The worst case scenario, the one I previously mentioned that I felt was over- represented, would be something more like the upper 20s (closer to 30F than 25F) for the South Bay and Pajaro/Hollister Valley. Is this possible? Yes, but it would be really hard to do. 850mb temps are progged to be right around normal for this time of year Friday morning, so we're not looking at a record cold airmass in the low-to-mid levels by stretch of the imagination. After Saturday morning, temps start to warm slightly by a few degrees each day, before returning to normal by early next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 650 PM PST Wed Jan 7 2026 VFR-MVFR tonight and Thursday. Cooler air on northwest winds along with isolated showers continue tonight. Dry Thursday and Thursday night. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. West wind gusty to 25 knots at times mainly tonight and Thursday morning. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR-MVFR. Northwest winds will usher in cooler air and isolated showers tonight. West to northwest winds 10 to 20 knots tonight and Thursday. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Tuesday) Issued at 643 PM PST Wed Jan 7 2026 Northerly winds will gradually increase through the remainder of today and tonight, peaking mid-morning Thursday. The increasing winds will coincide with a building northwest swell with dangerous conditions over our waters through late Thursday evening when winds and wave energy will gradually ease through Friday into the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...High Surf Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 10 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-505-509-530. Extreme Cold Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for CAZ502-506-508-510-512>518-528>530. Beach Hazards Statement from 1 AM PST Thursday through Friday evening for CAZ529. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Thursday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Behringer LONG TERM....Behringer AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea