FXUS66 KMTR 291142 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 342 AM PST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 139 AM PST Sat Nov 29 2025 - Mild and quiet, beautiful weather through the weekend. - Pattern continues into much of next week. Breezy offshore winds in the North Bay interior Wed/Thu. Minimal impact. - Hazardous beach conditions through early next, which will include sneaker waves, rip currents, and breaking waves 13 to 18 feet. - King Tides arrive December 2 - 7 and may lead to coastal flooding. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 139 AM PST Sat Nov 29 2025 (Today and tonight) No major changes to the forecast for today outside of high temperatures in the North and East Bay. The reason being, we're expecting stratus and Tule fog to persist across the region, keeping temperatures regulated. Highs on Friday for these regions peaked in the upper 40s to low 50s, though if there was clearing, the mid to upper 50s were observed. Expect that to the be the case again today for those regions and San Francisco, with warmer temperatures elsewhere especially the Central Coast, where some upper 60s to low 70s will be possible. Stratus and fog should return again tonight, leading to another mild night with temperatures near or just above normal for this time of year. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 139 AM PST Sat Nov 29 2025 (Sunday through Friday) More quiet weather is on tap through the extended forecast, with cluster analysis showing weak ridging to semi-zonal flow through Tue. Guidance then shows an upper level low, similar to an inside slider type situation Wed into Thu favoring breezy offshore winds for interior N Bay counties. Models then struggle for the late portion of the work week and weekend and where that low goes and if upper level high pressure can nose into the area. Right now, guidance continues to keep us dry. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 342 AM PST Sat Nov 29 2025 Areas of LIFR-IFR are occurring due to fog and low stratus. The WMC-SFO and SAC-SFO pressure gradients are 4.3 mb and 1.1 mb respectively, resulting in light offshore winds which is transporting fog, low stratus and chilly air from the Central Valley into the Bay Area. A weaker version of thermal ridging aloft persists today and tonight nonetheless providing a stable atmospheric cap on fog and stratus. High clouds are also passing by this morning. Any cloud breaks are also helping with nocturnal radiative cooling and fog and low stratus development; precipitable water in the atmosphere is near the 25th percentile i.e. below normal, dry for late November. LIFR-IFR in the valleys will likely be slow to clear again today, given a weaker late November sun angle. Areas LIFR-IFR redeveloping due to fog and low stratus tonight and Sunday morning. Vicinity of SFO...IFR due to stratus prevailing until 17z then MVFR ceiling 17z-18z, then VFR. Caveat, it may be slow to clear again today due to the current feedback loop of chilly fog and stratus in light offshore winds from the Central Valley. IFR ceiling likely to redevelop by 09z early Sunday. Mainly light northeast to east wind today becoming northwest 5-10 knots late today and tonight. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...It's VFR however there are patches to areas of LIFR-IFR due to fog and low stratus nearby e.g. Fort Ord and within the Salinas Valley. Chilly southeasterly drainage winds will transport fog and low stratus /LIFR-IFR/ in the Salinas valley at times close to KSNS. Low confidence VFR prevails at KMRY through morning since there's a small difference between the air temp and dewpoint temp, cooling to saturation and dense fog /VLIFR-LIFR/ did occur last evening. Otherwise VFR is likely to prevail today with surface winds gradually becoming onshore 5 to 10 knots late this afternoon and early evening. Low confidence VFR forecast tonight and early Sunday morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 308 AM PST Sat Nov 29 2025 Winds will increase mainly across the outer coastal waters late tonight and Sunday. Hazardous marine conditions return Sunday with increasing swell heights. Winds increase and wave heights build due to incoming long period westerly swell in the mid work week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 139 AM PST Sat Nov 29 2025 Moderate to long period northwesterly swell will result in an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents. Breaking waves of 13 to 18 feet are expected. A beach hazards statement is in effect for the coastline from Sonoma County to Monterey County through 10 PM PST Sunday evening. Sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. Dangerous beach conditions look to continue into early next week, though there is some uncertainty as breaking wave heights flirt with High Surf Advisory criteria. Stay tuned, as and remember, never turn your back to the ocean. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PST Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea