FXUS66 KMTR 242003 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 103 PM PDT Sat May 24 2025 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 102 PM PDT Sat May 24 2025 Mostly quiet weather pattern across the region with minor day-to-day changes through Monday. A warming trend will kick off Tuesday and warm to above seasonal averages by the Friday of the upcoming week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 102 PM PDT Sat May 24 2025 A weak upper level trough continues to exit the region today. This will allow temperatures this afternoon to warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s near the coast where low clouds appear to have the greatest probability of hanging around much of the day. Meanwhile, the interior will warm into the mid/upper 70s to lower 80s. Breezy west to northwest winds are expected this afternoon with gusts up to 35 mph along the coast and in the NW-SE oriented valleys. Widespread low clouds look to return tonight and penetrate into the coastal adjacent valleys as a solid marine layer remains in place. Temperatures overnight will range from the upper 40s to low 50s. Tomorrow, expect similar afternoon winds and temperatures as we have today. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 102 PM PDT Sat May 24 2025 An upper level ridge will then build across the region beginning Wednesday and last through next weekend. However, a cut-off low is forecast to develop within the broader ridge and move towards Baja California late in the upcoming week. The exact track/placement of the cut-off low may impact temperatures and overall weather across our region in the upcoming week. However, the overall trend is for interior temperatures to warm to as much as 15 degrees above average by Friday. Meanwhile, temperatures look to continue to be near normal for coastal locations. Thus, the warmest interior locations are likely to reach Moderate HeatRisk on Friday. This is advertised with high confidence based on ensemble guidance and cluster analysis. With some uncertainty with the position of the cut-off low, be sure to stay tuned to the latest forecast information. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 AM PDT Sat May 24 2025 CIGs are eroding and VFR is returning for most areas aside from the immediate coast and around the Monterey Bay which will keep CIGs through the TAF period. Moderate to breezy winds build across much of the region through the afternoon but look to reduce into the evening. As winds reduce, low clouds move farther inland and fill over SF Bay as well as APC and LVK. Moments of mist and drizzle look to affect STS and the Monterey Bay into Sunday morning. Cloud cover erodes into late Sunday morning for most areas, but looks persists beyond the TAF period for HAF and the Monterey Bay terminals. Vicinity of SFO...Expect VFR return into the early afternoon and last into the early night. Breezy to gusty west winds are building and look to last into the evening before gusts cut off. MVFR CIGs arrive into the night and remain through the late morning. Breezy west winds build again into Sunday afternoon as CIGs erode. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...CIGs remain around the Monterey Bay through the TAF period. Expect moderate to breezy winds through the afternoon and into the evening. CIGs fall to IFR levels as winds decrease in the evening. Moments of even lower CIGs and mist/drizzle look to effect the terminals into the mid morning on Sunday. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1141 AM PDT Sat May 24 2025 Breezy to gusty northwest winds will continue through Memorial Day weekend. Expect hazardous marine conditions across the waters through the weekend and into the early work week as rough and hazardous seas linger. Winds and seas ease into the late week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea