FXUS66 KMTR 042050 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1250 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1245 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026 - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions through the work week. - Hazardous beach conditions from late tonight through Saturday evening at Pacific Coast beaches. - 10 to 30% chance of rain developing north to south on Sunday, with the higher chances favored for the North Bay and the coastal mountains. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1245 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026 (This evening through Thursday) Mostly clear skies prevail throughout the San Francisco Bay Area and Central California Coast this afternoon. A broad, high- amplitude upper-level ridge remains anchored over California today, resulting in these exceptionally pleasant February conditions. 12 PM PST temperatures are generally near to several degrees above where they were compared to yesterday. Afternoon maximums will land in mid-60s to upper-70s region-wide, equating to around 7-15 degrees above normal for this date. Some locations will be close to daily record highs for the day; please refer to the Climate section of the discussion for more information. Upper-level ridge begins to nudge inland more on Thursday as a weak low approaches the Baja California coast. For our area, expect only minor day-to-day changes with temperature and sky cover for tomorrow. Expect another potential foggy start to the day for some interior East Bay and North Bay locations.&& .LONG TERM... Issued at 1245 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Weak upper-level low approaches the southern California Coast on Friday. This will mark the beginning of a gradually cooling trend for the Bay Area and Central Coast as geopotential heights scale back. Brief ridging will return to northern California on Saturday before the pattern change unfolds for the second half of the weekend. Longwave trough in the eastern Pacific will progress towards the West Coast during the day on Sunday and into Monday. This will result in increased precipitation chances for the region beginning mid-day Sunday for the North Bay and late afternoon/evening south of the Golden Gate. Right now, total precipitation amounts appear to be light. In fact, the latest forecast package actually decreases totals for the entire region. Some breezy winds are expected to accompany this system, but still remaining low impact overall. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 317 AM PST Wed Feb 4 2026 Strong 500 mb high pressure over the forecast area will result in VFR except for patchy morning fog /LIFR-IFR/. Surface pressure gradients (and winds) are directed offshore 9.5 mb WMC-SFO and 1.3 mb SAC-SFO. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Light wind direction varying from southeast to northeast. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Southeast cool air drainage winds today becoming light and variable mid to late afternoon. Southeast cool air drainage winds redevelop tonight and Thursday morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 842 AM PST Wed Feb 4 2026 Light easterly winds today will turn southerly by Thursday as high pressure shifts eastward. Seas will remain small today into Thursday then rapidly build Thursday night through Saturday. Winds will increase on Sunday ahead of an incoming cold front dropping down from the Pacific Northwest. && .BEACHES... Issued at 319 AM PST Tue Feb 3 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from 12 AM PST Thursday to 9 PM PST Saturday at all Pacific Coast beaches. Westerly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. Remember to stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back on the ocean! && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1124 PM PST Tue Feb 3 2026 The following are the record high temperatures at the long term sites for February 4th. Location Feb 4th Record High Santa Rosa 77 in 2018 San Rafael 73 in 2018 Kentfield 75 in 2018, 2001 Napa 72 in 2001, 1984, 1930 Richmond 76 in 2018 Livermore 73 in 1917, 1906 San Francisco 74 in 2018 SFO Airport 75 in 2018 Redwood City 77 in 1984 Half Moon Bay 78 in 2018 Oakland Museum 70 in 2001, 1984 San Jose 76 in 2018, 1963 Salinas Airport 80 in 2018 && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement from midnight PST tonight through late Thursday night for CAZ006-505-509-529-530. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 9 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-505-509-529-530. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rowe LONG TERM....Rowe AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea