FXUS66 KMTR 110821 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 121 AM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 114 AM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026 - Showers last through much of Saturday with storm chances rebuilding into the afternoon - More consistent and widespread rain arrives Saturday night along with widespread gusty winds - Showers and storm chances linger into late Sunday before a warming and drying trend arrives into the work week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 114 AM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026 (Today and tonight) Convection for the Bay Area and Central Coast have eased and the atmosphere continues to stabilize and cool. Passing showers will continue through the night, but rainfall and localized winds look to be much more reasonable than the afternoon cells. Shower activity reduces slightly into the late night, but widespread off and on showers are still expected. The warming from the sunrise and the warm sector of the next low pressure will increase mixing in the morning, leading to slight increases for more convective cells. Storm chances will continue to build into the afternoon and look to hit their peak in the late afternoon and early evening. The near- coast marine environment shows around 35% chance for storms with 20 to 30% for areas overland. These storm chances reduce as the next cold front moves through the area, with a fairly narrow and well-organized rain band moves through the region that evening and into the night. Southerly winds become gusty just head of the front peaking around 30 mph and some gusts around 45 mph will be possible, but luckily short-lived. Winds reduce quickly in the post frontal environment, but remain moderate to breezy through that night. Post-frontal showers and light chances for spotty storms will last through Saturday night. Additionally chances for flurries and possible dustings of snow will be possible on the highest peaks as much colder air aloft pushes into the region. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 114 AM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026 (Sunday through Friday) Chances for scattered storms increase again into Sunday as conditions warm into the afternoon. These chances may become a bit more limited due to the increasing cloud cover in the recent forecast updates and the overall colder flow entering the region, but will still be a possibility. Highs look to peak in the 50s and 60s for most areas on Sunday, with a few higher elevations failing to break 50. Shower and storm chances ease that night with some coastal drizzle possible into early Monday. Overall remaining rain totals look impressive for this late in the season: -Some of the higher coastal peaks are still looking at 2 inches of additional rainfall, even 3 in a few isolated area. -Most of the North Bay is looking around an inch to 1.5" and around 2" in the interior mountains. -The lower elevations around the the SF Bay and Monterey Bay will range from 0.75" to 1.10". Higher interior elevations 1.25" to 1.75" -The lowest rainfall totals look to be the Southern Salinas Valley at 0.20" to 0.50" Keep in mind, these totals could be massively affected by locally stronger storms, and the possibility of lines of showers and storms training over certain areas. After the low pressure, storm environment, and the last few chances for precip exit, the forecast calms significantly. Temperatures warm slowly into the next work week, but with a fair amount of onshore flow keeping things seasonable. Longer term models show chances for another trough passing through in the late week, but some place it more inland. This difference in positioning can mean the difference between some drizzle and light rain, to increased offshore flow if the trough is more inland. So something to keep an eye on after all of the excitement this weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM PDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Isolated to scattered showers persist across the region, some rather strong in the North and East Bay, with low end VFR-MVFR conditions across the terminals. The forecast tonight is rather difficult with convective activity playing a huge role in the current uncertainties in the forecast. The southwest winds will diminish somewhat across the terminals through the night, with some shower activity persisting through Saturday morning. Southwesterly winds will increase on Saturday as a narrow cold frontal rain band (NCFR) passes through the region in the evening hours. As the band comes through, the most intense winds are expected with gusts of 30- 35 kt or more possible, especially along the coast and through favored gaps. Behind the NCFR, shower activity continues through Sunday morning. Vicinity of SFO... MVFR ceilings and shower activity continue through the overnight period, with ceilings lifting to VFR after sunrise. Winds will come from the southwest through the TAF period, with the winds dramatically strengthening through Saturday afternoon and evening as the narrow cold frontal rain band approaches and passes through the terminal. Wind gusts of 35 kt or above as the NCFR passes can not be ruled out. Winds will slightly diminish once the NCFR passes, with showers continuing around the terminal area. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR conditions with mid- to high level cloud cover and scattered showers through the next couple of hours. MVFR conditions are possible overnight, with VFR conditions returning after sunrise. Showers will come into the region on Saturday morning, with the narrow cold frontal rain band expected to arrive Saturday evening close to the end of the TAF period. Southwest winds expected through the TAF period, with gentle winds overnight, and breezy winds with strong gusts returning Saturday afternoon as the NCFR approaches. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1000 PM PDT Fri Apr 10 2026 Isolated to scattered showers remain in the forecast tonight. The next round of precipitation arrives late Saturday into Sunday, as the next weather system arrives. Increasing winds and rough seas are expected, with isolated gale force gusts from Point Reyes to Point Sur. High pressure builds behind the system with fresh northwest winds developing early next week, as seas abate to become moderate through mid week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm- SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Murdock LONG TERM....Murdock AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea